Glaucus
04-20-2004, 11:33 AM
Before the Iraq invasion, most intelligent people predicted that the only real winner from this war would be Iran. The ties between Iran and Iraq are a lot deeper and stronger then most people here understand:
Analysis: Iran's influence in Iraq (http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/middle_east/3629765.stm)
An official Iranian delegation is in Baghdad at Washington's request to help resolve the impasse between the US occupation authorities and Shia cleric Moqtada Sadr. Middle East analyst Dilip Hiro says this underlies the influence that the predominantly Shia Iran has on the neighbouring Iraqi Shias.
....
Until a few days ago, conceding any role to the Islamic Republic of Iran has been anathema to the George Bush administration.
It is hell bent on seeing that the Iraqi politicians refrain from declaring Iraq an Islamic republic. Paul Bremer publicly announced that if those writing the transitional constitution made any such move, he would veto the document.
But present signs are that a large majority of Shias, led by Ayatollah Sistani, favour an Islamic entity of some sort for Iraq. About half of Iraq's Sunnis are also believed to support this.
So we see that what the US wants in Iraq differs from what most Iraqis want - especially the powerful and influential Iraqis. The idea that democracy will spread through the middle east like some domino effect is only half right. It won't be democracy that will be spreading, but more religious extremism, along with more violance and bloodshed. In the end, Iran wins and the US loses.
- Mike
Analysis: Iran's influence in Iraq (http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/middle_east/3629765.stm)
An official Iranian delegation is in Baghdad at Washington's request to help resolve the impasse between the US occupation authorities and Shia cleric Moqtada Sadr. Middle East analyst Dilip Hiro says this underlies the influence that the predominantly Shia Iran has on the neighbouring Iraqi Shias.
....
Until a few days ago, conceding any role to the Islamic Republic of Iran has been anathema to the George Bush administration.
It is hell bent on seeing that the Iraqi politicians refrain from declaring Iraq an Islamic republic. Paul Bremer publicly announced that if those writing the transitional constitution made any such move, he would veto the document.
But present signs are that a large majority of Shias, led by Ayatollah Sistani, favour an Islamic entity of some sort for Iraq. About half of Iraq's Sunnis are also believed to support this.
So we see that what the US wants in Iraq differs from what most Iraqis want - especially the powerful and influential Iraqis. The idea that democracy will spread through the middle east like some domino effect is only half right. It won't be democracy that will be spreading, but more religious extremism, along with more violance and bloodshed. In the end, Iran wins and the US loses.
- Mike